Abstract
We conducted global warming projections using global atmospheric models with high-horizontal resolution of 20-km (MRI-AGCM3.2S, the 20-km model) and 60-km (MRI-AGCM3.2H, the 60-km model) grid sizes. For the present-day climate of 21 years from 1983 to 2003, models were forced with observed historical sea surface temperatures (SST). For the future climate of 21 years from 2079 to 2099, models were forced with future SST distributions projected by the models of the Fifth phase of Couple Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Ensemble simulations for four different SST distributions and three different cumulus convection schemes were conducted to evaluate the uncertainty of projection. The simulations consistently project the increase of precipitation over eastern China for almost all months. In June, precipitation decreases over Japan and increases over the ocean to the south of Japan. The geographical distribution of precipitation change tends to depend relatively on the cumulus convection scheme and horizontal resolution of models rather than on SST distributions. The time evolution of pentad mean precipitation over Japan indicates the delay in the onset of Japanese rainy season in June. This delay can be attributed to the decrease of water vapor transport toward Japan associated with the southward shift of the subtropical high. Change in the subtropical high can be interpreted as the southward shift of the local Hadley circulation. The intensity of precipitation increases over most part of East Asia, while the possibility of drought will increase over Japan, the East China Sea and the area to the south of Japan.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.