Future changes in heatwaves characteristics in Romania

Abstract

The changes in the characteristics of heatwaves over Romania have been analyzed using the excess heat factor calculated for two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the EURO-CORDEX project. The changes were evaluated for the near future (2021–2050) using the historical period (1971–2000) as reference. The frequency of occurrence and the duration of heatwaves is projected to increase for both climate scenarios in particular over southern Romania. In this region, the percentage of change in the near future for the number of heatwaves is between 50 and 60% for the RCP4.5 scenario and 60–80% for the RCP8.5 scenario. Also for the same region, the duration of heatwaves will increase by 30–50% for the RCP4.5 scenario and 60–80% for the RCP8.5 scenario. These results indicate that the human exposure to heatwaves will increase in Romania in the near future. To increase awareness on heatwaves and their impact, we propose a series of immediate actions that include (1) improving the communication of the impact of heatwaves, (2) identification of the regions where the population is more vulnerable to heatwaves, and (3) better understanding of the mortality and morbidity associate with heatwaves in Romania.