Future changes in global rainfall erosivity: Insights from the precipitation changes

Abstract

Quantifying future changes in rainfall erosivity is essential to address potential water erosion risks. This study reveals a significant power function relationship between rainfall erosivity and precipitation both globally and across various climatic zones. Building on this foundation, new empirical models were developed to project relative changes in rainfall erosivity. These models, predicted on the understanding that General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide more accurate predictions of climate change trends than exact meteorological values, utilizes the ratio of modeled historical precipitation to future precipitation under various scenarios as the variable, formulated as a power function. Data from three GCMs runs from both the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6–including historical, mid-term, and long-term periods–were employed. The analysis suggests that by the end of the 21st century, global annual rainfall erosivity could increase by 2.6% under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP)1–2.6 scenario, by 3.5% under SSP2-4.5, and by a significant 6.4% under SSP5-8.5, relative to the 2000–2010 baseline. Furthermore, over 76% of the global land area is projected to experience an increase in rainfall erosivity over the century. Regions with projected changes in rainfall erosivity, whether increase or decrease, are likely to face more pronounced changes from mid-century onwards. The CMIP6 exhibits improved model consistency over its predecessor, CMIP5, indicating a greater water erosion risk as global warming progresses. These projections offer insights for strategies to combat soil degradation due to climate changes.