Abstract
Abstract Isoprene is emitted from vegetation to the atmosphere in significant quantities, and it plays an important role in the reactions that control tropospheric oxidant concentrations. As future climatic and land-cover changes occur, the spatial and temporal variations, as well as the magnitude of these biogenic isoprene emissions, are expected to change. This paper presents a study of the change in biogenic isoprene emissions that would result from both anthropogenic land-cover and climate-driven changes. Annual global isoprene emissions were estimated to be 522 Tg yr−1 under current climatological and land-cover conditions. When climate-driven land-cover changes are predicted, but climate does not change, total global emissions did not change significantly, although regional impacts were important. However, the use of future temperature and land-cover drivers to estimate isoprene emissions produced a global estimate of 889 Tg yr−1. Anthropogenic land-cover changes, such as urbanization and changes of natural vegetation to plantation forests, can also have substantial impacts on isoprene emissions (i.e., up to 717 Tg yr−1, a 37% increase, when land-cover changes but temperature remains at current-day values). The Model for Ozone and Related Tracers, version 2 (MOZART-2) was run with the different isoprene emission scenarios to simulate the potential changes in global atmospheric chemical composition. The simulated regional surface ozone concentrations changed as much as −9 to 55 ppbv under certain emission and climate scenarios. These results were used to evaluate changes in the ozone production chemistry under different emission scenarios. As expected, the impacts of changing isoprene emissions are regionally dependent, with large changes in China, the Amazon, and the United States.
Highlights
Biogenic emissions, including volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and particulate matter (PM), play an important role in regional air quality processes and global atmospheric chemistry
This paper presents a study of the change in biogenic isoprene emissions that would result from both anthropogenic land-cover and climate-driven changes
Anthropogenic changes in land cover can have a large impact on the emissions, and these changes should be considered in future climate and chemistry scenarios along with
Summary
Biogenic emissions, including volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and particulate matter (PM), play an important role in regional air quality processes and global atmospheric chemistry. Isoprene (C5H8) is the predominant VOC emitted by vegetation. This compound is very reactive in the atmosphere and contributes to the reactions that control the concentrations and lifetimes of longer-lived species. It has been shown that isoprene plays a key role in the reactions that form tropospheric ozone (O3), which is both a pollutant and a greenhouse gas (e.g., Chameides et al 1988; Fehsenfeld et al 1992; Pierce et al 1998). The collocation of anthropogenic sources of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) with biogenic sources of reactive VOC ( isoprene) can generate large amounts of tropospheric O3, whereas biogenic sources located in areas without the presence of anthropogenic NOx will not (Ryerson et al 2001) and can, in some instances, reduce O3 concentrations (e.g., Fiore et al 2005; von Kuhlmann et al 2004)
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