Abstract
The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological ( = impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021–2050 compared to 1971–2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078–2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K−1, showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.
Highlights
Apple production and its economic efficiency are clearly influenced by blossom frosts [1]
General Procedure and Regional Focus Thirteen simulated time series of air temperature from varying regional climate models were used to drive seven phenological models for the projection of apple bloom in Lower Saxony, Germany, whereas blossom frost risk was obtained by evaluating the temperature following bloom
Validation of Methods The presented methodology was evaluated at the levels climate, quality of phenological model in order to simulate phenophases as well as blossom frost risk
Summary
Apple production and its economic efficiency are clearly influenced by blossom frosts [1]. An analysis of meteorological and phenological records of the Rhineland fruitgrowing region in the West of Germany revealed, that risk of apple yield loss due to frosts in April remained unchanged during the period 1958 to 2007 [9,10,11]. This is consistent with studies showing an advance during the past of about 2.2 d/decade for both the last spring freeze (#0uC, Central Europe, 1951–1997) [12] and for apple flowering (BBCH 60 [13], Germany, 1961– 2000) [14]
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