Future Availability of Aircraft Maintenance Personnel

Abstract

The number of people available in this decade and in future years who will be potentially available to perform aircraft maintenance is diminishing. Demographic forecasts show that the rate of growth of the U.S. labor force is slowing and, in fact, will be negative in the 16 — 34 age group. The current U.S. workforce is aging. The effect of this will be felt in this decade when nearly 60% of the existing commercial aviation maintenance workforce becomes eligible for retirement. Work pressures accruing from aging fleet maintenance needs and from the simultaneous introduction of new technology aircraft, with sophisticated new systems, may hasten the departure of the workforce involved in aircraft maintenance, either through retirement or resignation of personnel to pursue other more desirable career options. At the same time, these problems may make the career less desirable to potential entry - level personnel who will be attracted by competing high technology industries with white - collar environments, day shift work and possibly better pay. Currently it is estimated that about 40% of Airframe and Powerplant mechanic school graduates enter other career fields than commercial aircraft maintenance. This trend may well accelerate in the future as industry increasingly recognizes the skills available in the A & P mechanic workforce. Demographic projections suggest there may be a shortfall of 60,000 — 70,000 and possibly more personnel in the next decade available to work in the aircraft maintenance industry. This paper explores various demographic and industry operational forecasts and discusses their impact on aircraft maintenance and inspection.