Abstract
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0–5.3 GtCO2-eq yr−1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40–58%) and stationary air conditioning (21–40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22–0.25 W m−2 in 2050, which would be 12–24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries.
Highlights
IntroductionIf the future growth in the use of high-global warming potentials (GWPs) HFCs is to be limited and HFC use phased down under regulations or treaty obligations, alternative technologies and/or substances will be required to meet the increasing global demand expected for applications that use HFCs, including refrigeration, air conditioning, foam blowing, as well as other applications that traditionally used CFCs and HCFCs. The continued development and marketing of new technologies and substances (UNEP, 2014) are expected to lower climate forcing from sectors that use high-GWP HFCs. At present, developed countries have already shifted from HCFCs to high-GWP HFCs in many applications and developing countries are beginning to shift from HCFCs to high-GWP HFCs, alternatives for high-GWP HFC uses are being developed and deployed for most applications
The Montreal Protocol has been very successful in phasingG.J.M
In an effort to inform decisions related to future HFC use and regulations, we present here new scenarios of HFC growth that are specific to use sectors and geographic regions and include estimated climate forcing contributions
Summary
If the future growth in the use of high-GWP HFCs is to be limited and HFC use phased down under regulations or treaty obligations, alternative technologies and/or substances will be required to meet the increasing global demand expected for applications that use HFCs, including refrigeration, air conditioning, foam blowing, as well as other applications that traditionally used CFCs and HCFCs. The continued development and marketing of new technologies and substances (UNEP, 2014) are expected to lower climate forcing from sectors that use high-GWP HFCs. At present, developed countries have already shifted from HCFCs to high-GWP HFCs in many applications and developing countries are beginning to shift from HCFCs to high-GWP HFCs, alternatives for high-GWP HFC uses are being developed and deployed for most applications. The following sections present the scenario methodology; the GWP-weighted emissions and radiative forcing results by sector and region; modified scenarios based on proposed control measures; alternatives to highGWP HFCs; and energy efficiency considerations
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