Abstract
Abstract. There is an emerging need for regional applications of sea ice projections to provide more accuracy and greater detail to scientists, national, state and local planners, and other stakeholders. The present study offers a prototype for a comprehensive, interdisciplinary study to bridge observational data, climate model simulations, and user needs. The study's first component is an observationally based evaluation of Arctic sea ice trends during 1980–2008, with an emphasis on seasonal and regional differences relative to the overall pan-Arctic trend. Regional sea ice loss has varied, with a significantly larger decline of winter maximum (January–March) extent in the Atlantic region than in other sectors. A lead–lag regression analysis of Atlantic sea ice extent and ocean temperatures indicates that reduced sea ice extent is associated with increased Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Correlations between the two variables are greater when ocean temperatures lag rather than lead sea ice. The performance of 13 global climate models is evaluated using three metrics to compare sea ice simulations with the observed record. We rank models over the pan-Arctic domain and regional quadrants and synthesize model performance across several different studies. The best performing models project reduced ice cover across key access routes in the Arctic through 2100, with a lengthening of seasons for marine operations by 1–3 months. This assessment suggests that the Northwest and Northeast Passages hold potential for enhanced marine access to the Arctic in the future, including shipping and resource development opportunities.
Highlights
An abundance of literature has contributed to widespread understanding that pan-Arctic sea ice coverage decreased over the past several decades, especially in the summer season (e.g., Meier et al, 2006; Parkinson and Cavalieri, 2008; Perovich et al, 2010; Polyak et al, 2010; Stroeve et al, 2012)
This study sought to fill some of those needs with a prototype end-to-end study that encompassed the following: developing a synthesis of observational information concerning regional sea ice decline; preparing a systematic application of this information to evaluate and select an optimal combination of climate models for regional sea ice projections; and analyzing what these projections imply for changes in key Arctic marine access routes
In this study we evaluated the performance of 13 atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) in simulating sea ice extent (SIE) for the period 1980 through 2008 in the Arctic and four sub-regions
Summary
An abundance of literature has contributed to widespread understanding that pan-Arctic sea ice coverage decreased over the past several decades, especially in the summer season (e.g., Meier et al, 2006; Parkinson and Cavalieri, 2008; Perovich et al, 2010; Polyak et al, 2010; Stroeve et al, 2012). This study sought to fill some of those needs with a prototype end-to-end study that encompassed the following: developing a synthesis of observational information concerning regional sea ice decline; preparing a systematic application of this information to evaluate and select an optimal combination of climate models for regional sea ice projections; and analyzing what these projections imply for changes in key Arctic marine access routes. The latter information is most directly relevant to stakeholders in military, government, commercial and industrial sectors. In the following three sections, we (1) present a diagnostic evaluation of regional variations of sea ice trends over the past several decades, highlighting an oceanic connection that has not been extensively documented; (2) use the observationally derived pan-Arctic and regional sea ice trends to identify and select a set of global climate models with the most successful hindcasts; and (3) obtain information from the selected models to more accurately project future sea ice changes of greatest relevance to regional marine access in key areas of the Arctic
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