Abstract
Abstract. Since not any individual precursor can be used as an accurate stand alone means for the earthquake prediction, it is necessary to integrate different kinds of precursors. The precursors selected for analysis in this study include electron and ion density, electron temperature, total electron content (TEC), electric and magnetic fields and land surface temperature (LST) several days before three strong earthquakes which happened in Samoa Islands, Sichuan (China) and Borujerd (Iran). The precursor's variations were monitored using data obtained from experiments onboard DEMETER (IAP, ISL, ICE and IMSC) and Aqua-MODIS satellites. Regarding the ionospheric precursors, the geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp were used to distinguish pre-earthquake disturbed states from the other anomalies related to the geomagnetic activities. The inter-quartile range of data was utilized to construct their upper and lower bound to detect disturbed states outsides the bounds which might be associated with impending earthquakes. When the disturbed state associated with impending earthquake is detected, based on the type of precursor, the number of days relative to earthquake day is estimated. Then regarding the deviation value of the precursor from the undisturbed state the magnitude of impending earthquake is estimated. The radius of the affected area is calculated using the estimated magnitude and Dobrovolsky formula. In order to assess final earthquake parameters (which are date, magnitude and radius of the affected area) for each case study, using the median and inter-quartile range of earthquake parameters obtained from different precursors, the approximate bounds of final earthquake parameters are defined. For each studied case, a good agreement was found between the estimated and registered earthquake parameters.
Highlights
Many papers and special monographs have been published on satellite observation of perturbations associated with seismic activity (Hayakawa and Molchanov, 2002; Pulinets and Boyarchuk, 2004, Akhoondzadeh, 2011)
In order to detect disturbed states that might be associated to impending earthquake, the variations of different earthquake precursors regarding the three earthquakes have been analyzed in this study
By integrating the earthquake parameters resulted from all precursors the final earthquake parameters were estimated
Summary
Many papers and special monographs have been published on satellite observation of perturbations associated with seismic activity (Hayakawa and Molchanov, 2002; Pulinets and Boyarchuk, 2004, Akhoondzadeh, 2011). An energy transfer due to a break down between source and environment is made These changes prior to the earthquake or along with it may have different physical and chemical affects on the lithosphere, atmosphere and ionosphere, and makes it possible to be detected. Satellite experiments due to the vast coverage of the seismic zones of the Earth along with other sources of information are regarded as suitable means for earthquake study. They allow performing meaningful statistical studies with a much larger number of recorded events. If it can be shown that earthquake perturbations are real and systematic they could be considered as short-term precursors, occurring between a few hours and a few days before the earthquakes
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