Fusion of clinical and stochastic finite element data for hip fracture risk prediction

Abstract

Hip fracture affects more than 250,000 people in the US and 1.6 million worldwide per year. With an aging population, the development of reliable fracture risk models is therefore of prime importance. Due to the complexity of the hip fracture phenomenon, the use of clinical data only, as it is done traditionally, might not be sufficient to ensure an accurate and robust hip fracture prediction model. In order to increase the predictive ability of the risk model, the authors propose to supplement the clinical data with computational data from finite element models. The fusion of the two types of data is performed using deterministic and stochastic computational data. In the latter case, uncertainties in loading and material properties of the femur are accounted for and propagated through the finite element model. The predictive capability of a support vector machine (SVM) risk model constructed by combining clinical and finite element data was assessed using a Women׳s Health Initiative (WHI) dataset. The dataset includes common factors such as age and BMD as well as geometric factors obtained from DXA imaging. The fusion of computational and clinical data systematically leads to an increase in predictive ability of the SVM risk model as measured by the AUC metric. It is concluded that the largest gains in AUC are obtained by the stochastic approach. This gain decreases as the dimensionality of the problem increases: a 5.3% AUC improvement was achieved for a 9 dimensional problem involving geometric factors and weight while a 1.3% increase was obtained for a 20 dimensional case including geometric and conventional factors.