Further investigations of how rare disaster information affects risk taking: A registered replication report.

Abstract

Across two experiments, Newell, Rakow, Yechiam, and Sambur (Nature Climate Change, 6(2), 158-161, 2016) demonstrated that providing rare disaster information increased people's tolerance for risk-taking. These results motivated a series of as yet-unpublished follow-up experiments involving new manipulations. However, the failure to replicate the original finding in these follow-ups has led our confidence in the original effect to wane. The aim of this registered report was to reconsider the evidence, published and unpublished, for the rare disaster information effect in light of new data. We conducted a large scale replication (N= 242) in which we failed to find evidence for the effect reported in Newell et al. thus further reducing our confidence. This registered report format provides a transparent framework by which to address the discrepancy between the published and previously-unpublished findings.