Fully automated 3D machine learning model for HPV status characterization in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas based on CT images

Abstract

BackgroundHuman papillomavirus (HPV) status plays a major role in predicting oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) survival. This study assesses the accuracy of a fully automated 3D convolutional neural network (CNN) in predicting HPV status using CT images. MethodsPretreatment CT images from OPSCC patients were used to train a 3D DenseNet-121 model to predict HPV-p16 status. Performance was evaluated by the ROC Curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and F1 score. ResultsThe network achieved a mean AUC of 0.80 ± 0.06. The best-preforming fold had a sensitivity of 0.86 and specificity of 0.92 at the Youden's index. The PPV, NPV, and F1 scores are 0.97, 0.71, and 0.82, respectively. ConclusionsA fully automated CNN can characterize the HPV status of OPSCC patients with high sensitivity and specificity. Further refinement of this algorithm has the potential to provide a non-invasive tool to guide clinical management.