Abstract
Fuel cells are in varying stages of commercialization for both automotive and non-automotive applications. The fuel cell industry has made substantial progress but still needs to reduce costs and improve performance to compete successfully with established technologies. In just 5 years, costs have been reduced by a factor of two while improving efficiency and durability. Based on interviews with fuel cell manufacturers in the U.S., Japan and the EU and information from published sources, a model of non-automotive fuel cell markets is constructed and used to estimate the impacts of government policies and to project the potential evolution of the industry to 2025. The model includes the effects of learning-by-doing, scale economies and exogenous technological progress on component and system costs, estimates customer choices between fuel cell and competing established technologies, and attempts to measure the impacts of government policies. With continued policy support it appears likely that the industry can become self-sustaining within the next decade.
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