Fuel availability not fire weather controls boreal wildfire severity and carbon emissions

<p>The circumpolar boreal biome is affected by increases in fire frequency and severity associated with climate warming. About 30% of the world’s terrestrial carbon (C) is stored in the boreal region. Fires can produce large C emissions when substantial amounts of aboveground and belowground biomass and soil organic matter are combusted. Quantification and understanding of the drivers of C combustion is crucial to better assess the role of boreal fires in the global carbon cycle.</p><p>Despite the fact that the majority of boreal burned area occurs on the Eurasian continent, relatively few measurements of C combustion have been made in Eurasian boreal ecosystems. Here we synthetized data from 41 field sites collected during the summer of 2019 in Eastern Siberian larch forests. C combustion from surface and stand-replacing fires varied between 1.54 and 5.38 kg C/m<sup>2</sup>. Belowground pools contributed in average to 73.9% of total C combustion. C combustion was higher in open larch-dominated forests (<em>Larix cajanderi</em>) and open forests with a mixture of larch and pine (<em>Pinus sylvestris</em>). High severity crown fires were observed in dense larch-dominated forests, yet C combustion was in average 23% lower than in the open stands. To our knowledge, this study is the first to quantify C combustion from wildfires in a continuous permafrost terrain in Northeast Siberia. We also investigated the effects of fire weather and pre-fire stand characteristics (e.g., stand age, drainage conditions, overstory tree species composition) on C combustion.</p><p>Because fires can also have a longer-term impact on permafrost environments through changes in surface energy balance and ground thermal regime, we also quantified active layer deepening in our study area. We measured thaw depth in 13 burned and 6 unburned sites one year after the fire. We explored the interactions between fire, vegetation, drainage conditions, and thaw depth. Our study shows that fire deepens the active layer, yet the magnitude of the effect is controlled by vegetation characteristics and topo-edaphic factors. Our findings provide insight to feedbacks between climate warming and boreal fires in permafrost-underlain larch forests in Siberia.</p>

The boreal forest is the second largest biome in the world containing 33% of the Earth's forest cover ([FAO 2001][1]) of which approximately 25% is natural. It is circumpolar and shares similar taxa across its range. It has approximately 20 300 identified species. Along with the tropics, the

The Arctic-boreal region is warming rapidly, with consequences for northern ecosystems and global climate. Fires across the Arctic-boreal region are a major natural disturbance mechanism that initiate climate warming (positive) and cooling (negative) feedbacks. Understanding the net forcing effect from boreal fire on climate is crucial in managing and mitigating climate change impacts of boreal fires. Here we report radiative forcing estimates from boreal forest fires across Alaska and Western Canada (Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment-domain). Our results integrate the effect of greenhouse gas emissions (warming) and aerosols emission (net cooling) have through direct combustion, post-fire vegetation recovery sequestering carbon (cooling), fire-induced permafrost degradation emitting CO2 and CH4 (warming), and changes in surface albedo (cooling). Alaskan fires are on average climate warming (1.34±2.95 W/m2 per burned area) – uncertainty given as spatial standard deviation, while Canadian fires show on average a climate cooling (‑2.26±2.48 W/m2 per burned area) effect. The emissions from the combustion of organic soils and post-fire permafrost thaw dominate the positive feedback for Alaskan fires, whereas the cooling effect of post-fire changes in surface albedo because of prolonged spring snow cover dominate for the western Canadian fires. Our work demonstrates large-scale spatial variability in the climate feedbacks from North American boreal forest fires. Such fine-scale spatial information on the warming and cooling influences of forest fires could be useful in designing forest management and fire suppression activities informed by climate impacts.

Tropospheric ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) pollution in the Northern Hemisphere is commonly thought to be of anthropogenic origin. While this is true in most cases, copious quantities of pollutants are emitted by fires in boreal regions, and the impact of these fires on CO has been shown to significantly exceed the impact of urban and industrial sources during large fire years. The impact of boreal fires on ozone is still poorly quantified, and large uncertainties exist in the estimates of the fire-released nitrogen oxides (NO x ), a critical factor in ozone production. As boreal fire activity is predicted to increase in the future due to its strong dependence on weather conditions, it is necessary to understand how these fires affect atmospheric composition. To determine the scale of boreal fire impacts on ozone and its precursors, this work combined statistical analysis of ground-based measurements downwind of fires, satellite data analysis, transport modeling and the results of chemical model simulations. The first part of this work focused on determining boreal fire impact on ozone levels downwind of fires, using analysis of observations in several-days-old fire plumes intercepted at the Pico Mountain station (Azores). The results of this study revealed that fires significantly increase midlatitude summertime ozone background during high fire years, implying that predicted future increases in boreal wildfires may affect ozone levels over large regions in the Northern Hemisphere. To improve current estimates of NOx emissions from boreal fires, we further analyzed ΔNOy /ΔCO enhancement ratios in the observed fire plumes together with transport modeling of fire emission estimates. The results of this analysis revealed the presence of a considerable seasonal trend in the fire NOx /CO emission ratio due to the late-summer changes in burning properties. This finding implies that the constant NOx /CO emission ratio currently used in atmospheric modeling is unrealistic, and is likely to introduce a significant bias in the estimated ozone production. Finally, satellite observations were used to determine the impact of fires on atmospheric burdens of nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ) and formaldehyde (HCHO) in the North American boreal region. This analysis demonstrated that fires dominated the HCHO burden over the fires and in plumes up to two days old. This finding provides insights into the magnitude of secondary HCHO production and further enhances scientific understanding of the atmospheric impacts of boreal fires.

Radley Horton,1,a Daniel Bader,1,a Yochanan Kushnir,2 Christopher Little,3 Reginald Blake,4 and Cynthia Rosenzweig5 1Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY. 2Ocean and Climate Physics Department, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY. 3Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Lexington, MA. 4Physics Department, New York City College of Technology, CUNY, Brooklyn, NY. 5Climate Impacts Group, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY

Characterization of biophysical contexts leading to severe wildfires in Portugal and their environmental controls

Changing wildfire regimes are causing rapid shifts in forests worldwide. In particular, forested landscapes that burn repeatedly in relatively quick succession may be at risk of conversion when pre‐fire vegetation cannot recover between fires. Fire refugia (areas that burn less frequently or severely than the surrounding landscape) support post‐fire ecosystem recovery and the persistence of vulnerable species in fire‐prone landscapes. Observed and projected fire‐induced forest losses highlight the need to understand where and why forests persist in refugia through multiple fires. This research need is particularly acute in the Klamath‐Siskiyou ecoregion of southwest Oregon and northwest California, USA, where expected increases in fire activity and climate warming may result in the loss of up to one‐third of the region's conifer forests, which are the most diverse in western North America. Here, we leverage recent advances in fire progression mapping and weather interpolation, in conjunction with a novel application of satellite smoke imagery, to model the key controls on fire refugia occurrence and persistence through one, two, and three fire events over a 32‐year period. Hotter‐than‐average fire weather was associated with lower refugia probability and higher fire severity. Refugia that persisted through three fire events appeared to be partially entrained by landscape features that offered protection from fire, suggesting that topographic variability may be an important stabilizing factor as forests pass through successive fire filters. In addition, smoke density strongly influenced fire effects, with fire refugia more likely to occur when smoke was moderate or dense in the morning, a relationship attributable to reduced incoming solar radiation resulting from smoke shading. Results from this study could inform management strategies designed to protect fire‐resistant portions of biologically and topographically diverse landscapes.

Synoptic-scale drivers of fire weather in Greece

Critical climate thresholds for fire in wet, temperate forests

We report measurements and analysis of a boreal forest fire, integrating the effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, black carbon deposition on snow and sea ice, and postfire changes in surface albedo. The net effect of all agents was to increase radiative forcing during the first year (34 +/- 31 Watts per square meter of burned area), but to decrease radiative forcing when averaged over an 80-year fire cycle (-2.3 +/- 2.2 Watts per square meter) because multidecadal increases in surface albedo had a larger impact than fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This result implies that future increases in boreal fire may not accelerate climate warming.

QuestionsDo endogenous (landscape/vegetation) or exogenous (weather) factors control fire severity? During severe fire weather, is there convergence in fire severity across rain forest, forests and heathlands such that all locations burn with similarly high severity? Are there long‐term effects of fire severity in temperate crown‐fire ecosystems?LocationMontane rain forests, eucalypt forests and heaths in the temperate climate zone of eastern Australia (Washpool/Gibraltar Range National Park).MethodsThe immediate and longer‐term effects of fire weather and landscape (terrain, previous fire history and vegetation type) factors on fire severity and ecosystem response were measured using remote sensing and ground measures of microclimate, productivity and plant resprouting at 45 sites.ResultsFire weather strongly interacted with terrain, antecedent fire history and vegetation type, resulting in complex mosaics of mixed fire severity rather than convergence to uniform fire severity. Vegetation type influenced the effects of time‐since‐fire and fire frequency on fire severity, suggesting differential fire feedbacks. High fire severity left a long‐term imprint on total reflectance, ground temperatures and productivity of the vegetation, but these effects were not uniform across vegetation types. The abundance of resprouting species was not strongly affected by fire severity.ConclusionsThere was evidence for strong weather control of fire severity but fire history, terrain and vegetation shape the immediate effect due to the contrasting pyrogenic vs pyrophobic nature of the vegetation mosaic. The short‐term dominance of weather as a driver of fire severity is only weakly related to the longer‐term ecosystem response because of the strong resprouting ability of the canopy dominants, even in rain forest. The forest complexes of eastern Australia appear highly resilient to high fire severity in both structure and floristics, which may influence long‐term feedbacks.

Water vapour plays a key role in the Earth's energy balance. Almost 50% of the absorbed solar radiation at the surface is used to cool the surface, through evaporation, and warm the atmosphere, through release of latent heat. Latent heat is the single largest factor in warming the atmosphere and in transporting heat from low to high latitudes. Water vapour is also the dominant greenhouse gas and contributes to a warming of the climate system by some 24°C (Kondratev 1972). However, water vapour is a passive component in the troposphere as it is uniquely determined by temperature and should therefore be seen as a part of the climate feedback system. In this short overview, we will first describe the water on planet Earth and the role of the hydrological cycle: the way water vapour is transported between oceans and continents and the return of water via rivers to the oceans. Generally water vapour is well observed and analysed; however, there are considerable obstacles to observing precipitation, in particular over the oceans. The response of the hydrological cycle to global warming is far reaching. Because different physical processes control the change in water vapour and evaporation/precipitation, this leads to a more extreme distribution of precipitation making, in general, wet areas wetter and dry areas dryer. Another consequence is a transition towards more intense precipitation. It is to be expected that the changes in the hydrological cycle as a consequence of climate warming may be more severe that the temperature changes.

Fire severity is a key component of fire regimes, and understanding the factors affecting it is critical given the increasing incidence of wildfires globally. We quantified the factors affecting the severity of the 2019–2020 fires in Victoria, southeastern Australia. We constructed statistical models of relationships between fire severity (as reflected by two measures: Crown Burn and the composite measure of Crown Burn/Crown Scorch) and the main and interacting effects of five key covariates: fire progression zone (reflecting fire weather), time since previous major disturbance in the forest, forest type, slope, and aspect. The best supported models for the probability of a Crown Burn and the probability of a Crown Burn/Crown Scorch contained evidence of a three‐way interaction between fire weather, forest type, and time since previous major disturbance as well as two‐way interactions between (1) fire weather and slope, and (2) fire weather and aspect. There was an increase in the probability of Crown Burn and Crown Burn/Crown Scorch under more extreme fire weather in all forest types, with the effect especially elevated in dry forest. Our analyses also revealed a range of response curve shapes for the relationships between time since previous major disturbance and fire severity relationships and these varied by fire weather classes and forest type. Under severe fire weather conditions, we found that relationships between time since previous major disturbance and fire severity relationships often exhibited non‐linear, negative polynomial shape with a peak around 10–40 yr, especially for Crown Burn, although there also were instances of this distinctive curve shape in our Crown Burn/Crown Scorch fire severity analysis. Our analyses also contained strong evidence that fire severity was higher on steeper slopes and on more exposed northerly aspects under extreme fire weather. Our analyses suggest that forests managed for timber production near settlements may be at increased risk of high‐severity fire. This is because logging resets stand age to zero, after which there is a subsequent period of increased probability of high‐severity fire, particularly under extreme fire weather conditions. Therefore, policies to maintain cover of older forest near settlements should be considered.

The global boreal forests comprise large stocks of organic carbon that vary with climate and fire regimes. Global warming is likely to influence several aspects of fire and cause shifts in carbon sequestration patterns. Fire severity or forest floor depth of burn is one important aspect that influences both carbon emission during combustion as well as post-fire ecosystem regeneration. Numerous publications on projections of future area burned exist, whereas scenarios on twenty-first century fire severity are more scarce, and the stand-typical response to severe fire weather is rarely taken into account. This paper aims to synthesize knowledge on boreal forest carbon stocks in relation to changes in fire severity for Quebec, Canada. Besides warming, this region may be subjected to an important increase in future precipitation. Future fire severity and area burned may well increase as fire weather will be drier, especially near the end of the twenty-first century. Moreover, the fire season peak may shift towards the late summer. Intense burning will favour tree cover development while the forest floor carbon stock may become less important. As a result, total Quebec boreal carbon sequestration may diminish. The development of dynamic vegetation models may improve scenarios on twenty-first century changes in carbon sequestration driven by climate change and fire severity and frequency effects.

The urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon has differential impacts on energy use and carbon emissions in buildings depending on the climate of the region and the urban planning strategies in place. This study explores the differential effects of UHI on energy use and carbon emissions in warm and cold climates, using North Africa and North Europe as case studies. We address the following research questions: 1) How does the UHI phenomenon impact energy use and carbon emissions in buildings in these regions? 2) What urban planning strategies are currently in place to mitigate the negative impacts of UHI on energy demand and emissions in these regions? 3) How effective are these strategies in mitigating the negative impacts of UHI on energy demand and emissions in both warm and cold climates? 4) What additional urban planning strategies could be implemented to reduce further the negative impacts of UHI on energy demand and emissions in both warm and cold climates? The UHI increases energy bills and emissions due to the higher demand for cooling energy in warm climates, while in cold climates, UHI reduces energy demand and emissions by decreasing the need for heating energy. Urban planning strategies, such as incorporating green space, using reflective materials, choice of colors, and designing for natural ventilation, can effectively mitigate the negative impacts of UHI on energy demand and emissions in both warm and cold climates. However, the effectiveness of these strategies varies depending on the climate of the region and the specific urban context. In this study, we will provide a recommendation for urban planning strategies that can be implemented to further reduce the negative impacts of UHI on energy demand and emissions in both warm and cold climates. Our study contributes to the understanding of the UHI phenomenon. It provides insights for urban planners and policymakers in developing effective strategies to reduce energy use and carbon emissions in buildings and cities.