From World Trade Liberalization to World Trade Emancipation: COVID-19

Abstract

This study proposes to evaluate the negative impact of COVID-19 on international trade exchange worldwide. Hence, we offer a new methodology is called the "The Trade Emancipation Evaluation Methodology (TEE-Methodology)." There are four primary phases in the implementation of TEE-Methodology. The first phase is designing a multi-input export database table by the production sector (agriculture, heavy industry, light industry, and services). The second phase is the measurement of the trade emancipation index by the production sector (αi). Hence, TEE-Methodology proposes to divide each production sector by: (i) the agriculture trade emancipation index (α1); (ii) heavy industry trade emancipation index (α2); (iii) light industry trade emancipation index (α3); (iv) services trade emancipation index (α4). The third phase is the measurement of the trade emancipation coverage (TEC) Index. The last phase is the measurement of the trade emancipation level (TEL) index. The general objective of applying the TEE-Methodology is to evaluate how the COVID-19 affects large and small countries' production and exports in the short run. TEE-Methodology does not intend to be a forecasting model in any case. TEE-Methodology, in effect, is a flexible and straightforward simulator, which can apply to any issue of trade emancipation that is originated from COVID-19.