From War to War to War: Arms Races in the Middle East

Abstract

In this article two simple Richardson-type arms race models are applied to the military build-ups of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Syria, and Israel. Time-series data on major weapon system inventories and capabilities of these nations and on their military manpower were collected for this study, and measurement procedures are discussed briefly. The periods from 1956 to 1967 and from 1967 to 1973 are analyzed separately to detect changes of reaction patterns from one arms race to the other. Ordinary and generalized least squares regression are used as estimation techniques. Empirical findings are compared across arms races, nations, armed services, weapon systems, models, and indicators. Many reaction patterns which initially look significant are wiped out if autocorrelation of residuals is taken into account by generalized least squares regression. Thus, the first period is shown to be more of a mutual arms “race,” whereas in the second period only Israel is seen as reacting to Arab inventories, capabilities, and manpower. The only exception is an Israeli-Syrian missile-boat race between 1967 and 1973. Generally it can be concluded that by disaggregating overall military postures into individual services for which multiple indicators are available, it is possible for arms race research to identify reaction processes which not only would have gone unnoticed in aggregate data but also come closer to real-world decision processes.