From Wales to Warsaw and Beyond: NATO’s Strategic Adaptation to the Russian Resurgence on Europe’s Eastern Flank

Abstract

IntroductionOn March 30, 2016, the Polish minister of defense launched a one-hundred-day countdown that will run until NATO's summit in Warsaw, which will likely have a significant impact on the Alliance's future. At the same time, and in light of Russia's increasingly aggressive resurgent actions targeted at shattering West- ern unity, the US administration has decided to send an armored brigade combat team to Europe in February 2017. This team will offer a rotational forward presence and bolster NATO's deterrence, thereby reassuring its members on the eastern flank. Since its last summit in Wales in 2014, NATO has changed its posture significantly, moving away from reassurance. It has strengthened the NATO Response Forces (NRF) and regionally aligned command structures, stepped up its exercises and training sessions, and even decided to bulk up its military presence through the establishment of a rotational, multinational brigade-sized component.Unfortunately, these security measures have not yet gone far enough to meet the expectations of the Baltic states and Poland. In view of the provocative actions of the Russian Federation, they are calling for a stronger NATO presence, achieved through the creation of permanent military bases on their territories. For these nations, the upcoming NATO summit, due to take place on July 8-9, 2016, will likely only bring dissatisfaction in its wake. This particular Alliance-internal disagreement raises a range of relevant questions in terms of the extent to which NATO has been able to adapt on a strategic level to the new security environment, which was primarily changed by Russia as a result of its illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea. Questions will also be posed as to what NATO should do next to reinforce a sense of security among its eastern members, who are faced with both classic military threats and the risk of hybrid attacks.Russia's Hybrid Warfare with Ukraine and the WestWith the annexation of Crimea in March 2014, Russia launched its neo-imperialist mission and attempt to position itself globally as one of the world's unquestioned superpowers. Moscow unleashed its hybrid military beast on Ukraine and the West, perceiving the Western world as its key opponent, the former Soviet bloc as a crucial sphere of influence, and NATO as a strategic national security threat.Russia exploited Ukraine's weaknesses, namely its transatlantic relationship and solidarity as the center of gravity of Western power, and launched an assault on morale, physical might, and freedom of action. Russia pulled out all the stops, seeking a strategic victory via the use of both material and immaterial, military and non-military, legal and illegal, and direct and indirect onslaughts on the West and Kyiv. This objective was reached without the overt application of substantial military force.Exploiting institutional weak spots and legal pressure points, historical and ethnic tensions, as well as financial and business opportunities, Russia's hybrid strategy was not only successful in Ukraine, but also had influence on the international level. This influence was also directed at Russia's own population, with the aim of consolidating the Kremlin's power and providing it with national legitimacy for unrestricted policies and action. While ensuring that the warfare was kept simmering below the boiling point of conventional war, Mos- cow advanced both kinetic and non-kinetic lines of operation, wearing down its enemy not through a decisive battle in the classic, Clausewitzian military sense, but rather through the attrition of morale. Non-kinetic efforts include political indoctrination, siege tactics, conspiracy theories tinged with anti-Semitism, the labeling of individuals as Nazis, the exploitation of the diaspora, and the influence of the Orthodox Church. This uncompromising information struggle saw Moscow exploit the influence of state media, online troll armies, proKremlin extremist narratives from political movements, think tanks, anti-globalist groups, and even various NGOs. …