From unipolarity to G-Zero and beyond: Political economy of the world without superpowers

Abstract

The erosion of the unipolar system of international relations, accelerated as a result of the turbulent events of 2022, is returning experts in the field of international relations to discuss the phenomenon of the balance of power and its embodiment in various models. During the thirty-year period, following the end of the Cold War (1991–2021), the system of interstate relations went through periods when unipolar, bipolar and multipolar models were considered optimal. This article, based on the author’s address at the plenary session of the First Saint-Petersburg Congress of International Studies, proposes a political and economic interpretation of the consequences that the member states of the world community will face at a new stage in the transformation of the modern architecture of international relations in the 21st century through the mechanism of the balance of power. The trend of reducing state power in comparison with the growing economic power of market institutions and business structures in the modern era has been replaced by a reverse trend. It is characterized by the “return of the state” against the backdrop of a global system in crisis. The absence of a hegemonic state in the new system leads to the destruction of the foundations of the international liberal order, the formation of a decentralized system of alliances of states, an increase in the number and scale of economic conflicts, expressed both in the formation of regional trade blocks and in the expansion of the practice of applying economic sanctions as a substitute for armed conflicts of the past. A new era in the political and economic development of the planet, in which new actors will replace the superpowers of the past, should be characterized as a period of competitive interdependence. The coming years will show what will prevail — competition, extolled by representatives of the realistic school of the theory of international relations, i. e. inter-country/inter-bloc rivalry, or interdependence raised to the shield by the liberals.