From theory to practice: The patterns of violence in northern Ireland 1969–1994

Abstract

Although thousands of articles and monographs have been written on the contemporary conflict in Northern Ireland, significant theoretical claims have not yet been either rigorously examined or empirically tested. By utilizing a multi‐variate time series analysis of the conflict from August 1969 through August 1994, we answer three interrelated questions. First, which variables related to separate theories of violence can be identified to help explain the divergent levels of paramilitary violence? Second, which theoretical explanation(s) has the strongest explanatory power? Third, if we prove that the causes of the conflict have evolved and changed, then to what extent are the theoretical assumptions still valid? By bringing data to bear on theory we advance our understanding of the changing dynamics of political violence in Northern Ireland. Ultimately, we discover a shift in the stimuli for violence that is explained by investigating aspects of both electoral politics and paramilitary strategy.