Abstract
One of the major questions in the study of economics, logistics, and business forecasting is the measurement and prediction of value creation, distribution, and lifetime in the form of goods. In ”real” economies, a perfect model for the circulation of goods is impossible. However, virtual realities and economies pose a new frontier for the broad study of economics, since every good and transaction can be accurately tracked. Therefore, models that predict goods’ circulation can be tested and confirmed before their introduction to ”real life” and other scenarios. The present study is focused on the characteristics of early-stage adopters for virtual goods, and how they predict the lifespan of the goods. We employ machine learning and decision trees as the basis of our prediction models. Results provide evidence that the prediction of the lifespan of virtual objects is possible based just on data from early holders of those objects. Overall, communication and social activity are the main drivers for the effective propagation of virtual goods, and they are the most expected characteristics of early adopters.
Highlights
Virtual worlds and games have been postulated to provide unprecedented possibilities for research in general [1,2], but especially for the study of economics [3] due to their ability to systematically track every event in that reality, and due to the possibility of creating controllable environments while having people exhibit natural behaviors.Perhaps one of the most prominent veins of study related to virtual economies has been the study of consumer behavior related to adopting and purchasing virtual goods in virtual worlds and games [4,5,6,7]
This has especially been the case since games and virtual world operators have been the forerunners in implementing the so-called freemium or free-to-play business model ([8,9,10]), where playing or using the virtual environment is free of charge, but the operator generates revenue through different manifold marketing strategies combining classical sales tactics imbued with platform design that further encourages virtual-goods purchases [11,12,13]
Virtual goods mostly take up the forms of in-game items related to the theme of the game, such as avatar clothing, gear, vehicles, pets, emoticons, and other customization options [5,14], as well as different types of items related to the recent proliferation of ”gamblification”, where acquiring virtual
Summary
Perhaps one of the most prominent veins of study related to virtual economies has been the study of consumer behavior related to adopting and purchasing virtual goods in virtual worlds and games [4,5,6,7] This has especially been the case since games and virtual world operators have been the forerunners in implementing the so-called freemium or free-to-play business model ([8,9,10]), where playing or using the virtual environment is free of charge, but the operator generates revenue through different manifold marketing strategies combining classical sales tactics imbued with platform design that further encourages virtual-goods purchases [11,12,13]. Sci. 2019, 9, 1268 goods is increasingly based on gambling-like mechanics, effectively blurring the line between gaming and gambling [15]
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