Abstract
This study examined individual, task, and environmental constraints that influence the career progression of youth Brazilian elite basketball players and the probability of reaching Novo Basquete Brasil (NBB) and to determine if the association of the relative age effect (RAE) is a key factor in the career progression. The sample consisted of 4,692 male players who were registered to participate in at least one U15, U17, or U22 youth Brazilian basketball championship between 2004 and 2018. Athletes who reached a high-performance level were coded like NBB players (9.6%). The birthdates, height, body mass, playing position, geographic region, club, competition category, and team performance were retrieved from the official data archive of the Brazilian Basketball Confederation and the National Basketball League. The maturity status was estimated using the predicted age at peak height velocity. A binary logistic regression examined the influence of each characteristic on the probability of a youth Brazilian basketball player to reach the NBB. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the associated area under the curve (AUC) were used to assess the discriminant ability of the model. The taller and younger players not selected early into national teams, without specialization by playing position, who participated in U22 national championship, migrated to the southeast region, and remained in the formation process over time have a greater chance to reach the NBB. The ROC curve demonstrated an AUC of 93%. A combination of individual, task, and environmental characteristics influences the sport career of a young Brazilian basketball player in reaching the NBB. Further, early-maturing athletes have a greater chance to reach higher performances. RAE influences lower-level categories, but not a “NBB player's” career progression. The coaches, stakeholders, and practitioners should perform a holistic evaluation of sport talent in terms of a constraint-based theoretical model with the aim of avoiding bias produced by the maturational status and RAE in the youth Brazilian elite basketball.
Highlights
The talent identification and development in sport is a dynamic process where individual, task, and environmental constraints interact in predicting long-term success (Phillips et al, 2010; Rees et al, 2016)
There was an overrepresentation of players born in the first quartile between athletes who were selected three times for national championship compared with the players who had played once or twice categories and lower representation of players born in the fourth quartile
The main findings were that (1) individual characteristics—being taller and younger—increased the likelihood of reaching Novo Basquete Brasil (NBB); (2) a late selection, late specialization, and being re-selected for the youth national championship were positively associated with “NBB player’s” career; (3) players were more likely to reach NBB if they were from the southeast region and who moved to other state or geographic region; (4) relative age effect (RAE) influences lower category career, but it does not determine success; (5) early-maturing players have a greater chance to reach high performance; and (6) only 9.6% of all players from the national youth Brazilian championship U15, U17, and U22 from 2004 to 2018 reached the NBB
Summary
The talent identification and development in sport is a dynamic process where individual, task, and environmental constraints interact in predicting long-term success (Phillips et al, 2010; Rees et al, 2016). In crosssectional and short-term longitudinal studies, stature (Zaricet al., 2020), birthdate (Torres-Unda et al, 2013; Rubajczyk et al, 2017), maturation (Arede et al, 2019), physical fitness (Hoffman et al, 1996; Hoare, 2000), and skills (Arede et al, 2019) can be useful to predict individual performance and the selection of young basketball athletes. Selecting athletes in the initial stage of talent development only from the physical performance perspective typically favors older members within a cohort, especially when in combination with early maturation and the influence of relative age effect (RAE) phenomenon (Pearson et al, 2006; Cobley et al, 2009; Rubajczyk et al, 2017)
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