From species distributions to climate change adaptation: Knowledge gaps in managing invertebrate pests in broad-acre grain crops

Abstract

Extensive research has shown that climate change will impact the distribution and outbreak potential of invertebrate pests in broad-acre crops. However, much less attention has been placed on translating these likely changes in pest outbreak frequency into practical management options for growers. Dryland grain production systems are generally predicted to be vulnerable to the effects of climate change. An initial step in understanding changes to outbreak potential of different pests is to describe the spatial distribution of different species and communities. Using a bioclimatic modelling approach, we demonstrate how general patterns of distribution for four major invertebrate pests of Australian dryland grain production systems are likely to be altered by climate change. While such models are useful for predicting the direct impacts of climate change on potential species distributions, they are less useful for assessing pest outbreak frequency from direct or indirect changes. In light of this, we explore different tools that can be used to support adaptive management by farmers to limit the impact of induced pest outbreaks. Primarily, research to increase available information of indirect impacts on the pest species and the communities they interact with, including their natural enemies, is required to extend models of pest outbreak potential. Further, incorporation of pests into global crop models combined with monitoring for existing pests and surveillance for new pests is critical for future pest management decision-making. For natural enemies, generalizations around the impact of climate change and flow on effects for pest control services need to be attempted now. The knowledge of potential management interventions is needed by farmers to support improved management decisions in the short-term, but in some cases will also facilitate adaption to climate change in the long-term.