From site-level to regional adaptation planning for tropical commodities: cocoa in West Africa

Götz Schroth,Armando Isaac Martinez-Valle,Christian Bunn,Peter Läderach

doi:10.1007/s11027-016-9707-y

Götz Schroth, Armando Isaac Martinez-Valle + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-016-9707-y

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Abstract

The production of tropical agricultural commodities, such as cocoa (Theobroma cacao) and coffee (Coffea spp.), the countries and communities engaged in it, and the industries dependent on these commodities, are vulnerable to climate change. This is especially so where a large percentage of the global supply is grown in a single geographical region. Fortunately, there is often considerable spatial heterogeneity in the vulnerability to climate change within affected regions, implying that local production losses could be compensated through intensification and expansion of production elsewhere. However, this requires that site-level actions are integrated into a regional approach to climate change adaptation. We discuss here such a regional approach for cocoa in West Africa, where 70 % of global cocoa supply originates. On the basis of a statistical model of relative climatic suitability calibrated on West African cocoa farming areas and average climate projections for the 2030s and 2050s of, respectively, 15 and 19 Global Circulation Models, we divide the region into three adaptation zones: (i) a little affected zone permitting intensification and/or expansion of cocoa farming; (ii) a moderately affected zone requiring diversification and agronomic adjustments of farming practices; and (iii) a severely affected zone with need for progressive crop change. We argue that for tropical agricultural commodities, larger-scale adaptation planning that attempts to balance production trends across countries and regions could help reduce negative impacts of climate change on regional economies and global commodity supplies, despite the institutional challenges that this integration may pose.

Highlights

A number of studies have highlighted the vulnerability to climate change of agricultural commodities in key producing regions, emphasizing the fact that climate change poses threats to individual farmers and communities, and to the economies of affected regions, the global supply of the respective commodities, and the sustainability of the industries concerned (Hannah et al 2013; Bunn et al 2015)
Variation among global circulation models (GCMs) was considerable resulting in a difference of 0.8 °C between the lowest and highest quartile of model projections by the 2030s and 1.0 °C by the 2050s
From coffee, cocoa has so far not been the object of major efforts to reduce its vulnerability to climate change, some studies have shown that for parts of the West African cocoa belt this would be necessary and other areas will soon follow (Läderach et al 2013; Ruf et al 2015; Schroth et al 2015b)

Summary

Introduction

A number of studies have highlighted the vulnerability to climate change of agricultural commodities in key producing regions, emphasizing the fact that climate change poses threats to individual farmers and communities, and to the economies of affected regions, the global supply of the respective commodities, and the sustainability of the industries concerned (Hannah et al 2013; Bunn et al 2015). Compared to other cocoa producing regions, West Africa’s cocoa belt is already exposed to a considerable drought risk (Wood and Lass 2001; Ruf et al 2015) and is projected to become increasingly affected by maximum temperatures approaching the crop’s physiological tolerance limit (Läderach et al 2013; Schroth et al 2015b) This situation is further compounded by the spread of low or zero-shade production practices in much of West Africa, progressively replacing the traditional practice of growing cocoa under the shade of remnant forest trees (Ruf 2011). This high vulnerability to climate change risks to affect the economies of several West African countries for which cocoa is among the most important agricultural exports (International Trade Centre 2001), as well as the livelihoods of several million cocoa farmers and their families

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