From Scarcity to Plenty – Who Shapes the Energy Mix of the Future and What Might It Be?

Abstract

The global pattern of primary energy sources will change profoundly during the 21st century. Consumers, businesses and governments together will shape the new energy mix. They all share three strong desires, which will deeply influence their energy decisions: · Sustained strong economic growth · Security of energy supply · A clean and safe environment. Consumer preferences, business solutions, and government demands will drive the change – not the depletion of any energy source. Global demand for commercially traded primary energy might grow from 10.8 billion tOE in 2004 to around 35 billion tOE in 2100. ‘Renewable’ primary energy sources could provide at least 35% of global demand in the year 2100; the solar portion of that might be 15%. Distributed power generation from ‘renewable’ energy sources such as solar, wind, water, and geothermal, is expected to become significant. New ways will have to be found to correctly measure the usage of distributed primary energy since a substantial part will be produced and consumed without ever being commercially traded. Fossil fuels - so dominant in 2004 with 83% - should still be important in absolute terms in 2100 (about 10 billion tOE), but with a much smaller relative share (about 28%). Natural gas and coal are expected to replace oil for many purposes. Nuclear could provide about 20% of the global primary energy demand in the year 2100. Fuel on fuel competition will be strong in the second half of the 21st century. Consumers will be able to choose from many options. This should lead to lower energy prices and to continuous improvements in energy conversion efficiencies. There is plenty of energy in the universe. It is a noble goal to capture enough of this energy so that all may prosper in a clean and safe environment. A lot needs to happen, if we want to get there by 2100. We need to seize the moment.