From risk to WEF security in the city: The influence of interdependent infrastructural systems

Abstract

Across the planet, interacting threats are converging in urban areas beset with pressures brought on by global processes such as urbanization and climate change, and the challenges of creating water, energy and food (WEF) security for their populations. With an increased probability of floods and other extremes, goes a heightened potential for cascading effects as WEF security is at risk from an array of tightly bound interdependencies undergirding the WEF nexus. Such interdependencies heighten risk for generalized disruptions, as, for instance, when heavy precipitation triggers a breakdown of transportation infrastructure, leading to failures in energy generation, and provision of food and water. In this paper, we apply a framework to examine how interdependent WEF infrastructural systems mediate the risks that climate extremes pose to urban WEF security. Given that urban WEF security often hinges on dynamics that take place in regions outside city boundaries, we also examine the effect of this dependence on urban FEW security risk. We compare the pre- and post-event governance and infrastructural conditions shaping WEF security in four cities: Boulder Colorado and New York (USA) illustrative of WEF security risks posed by low probability high impact extreme events; and Accra (Ghana) and Mexico City (Mexico), illustrative of governance and infrastructural arrangements that can fail even under low risk high probability extreme events. We find that complex technological and governance failures can amplify negative impacts from extremes. Conversely, institutional actions and infrastructural supports can mitigate these impacts. By understanding interdependencies, cities can anticipate and avoid cascading effects on WEF systems. We reflect on how commonalities and differences in sociodemographic, economic, technological, environmental, and governance configurations relate to different capacities to mitigate risks and adapt.