From Portland to January 6th to Election 2028, Assessing the Impact of Russian Disinformation

Abstract

Countering Russian-backed disinformation in the homeland is challenging. Headline-grabbing events in the US provide opportunities for Russian covert social media operations to stoke polarization and create chaos. When the Russians do engage with disinformation, it occurs in a broader schema filled with challenging exogenous political and social issues. Among the Russian disinformation campaigns in the US, there are two that illustrate the nuances. The first episode examined is the 2020 Portland riots and the second is the assault on the US Capitol on January 6th. In neither case was Russian disinformation the primary cause of the ensuing violence. Instead, the Russian covert operations amplified polarizing themes and contributed to the mayhem. Disinformation, whether driven by a hostile nation-state like Russia, or an illiberal agent, is nested within illiberal speech. In turn, illiberal speech is synergistically intertwined with polarization. Increasing polarization feeds off illiberal discourse and vice versa. As polarization escalates, societies become more conditioned to accept half-truths and conspiracies. This progression is linked to the degradation of democracy. The examples of Portland and January 6th give insights into where US society may be headed if the status quo endures.