From passenger itineraries to climate impact: Analyzing the implications of a new mid-range aircraft on the global air transportation system

Abstract

Aircraft design usually focuses on utilizing new technologies to improve mission performance of individual aircraft and, thus, reduce cost, emissions and climate impact of the global air transportation system (ATS). However, efficiency gains in the ATS can also be achieved by improving the alignment of payload–range capabilities and aircraft–route assignment of the overall fleet. Therefore, this article analyzes the implications—from passenger itineraries to climate impact—of a new mid-range aircraft (NMRA), which addresses the current lack of modern, designated mid-range aircraft in commercial production. The analysis is based on simulating and comparing two future scenarios with similar technology levels: one with and one without a NMRA. The core of the applied novel simulation framework is highly integrated models for passenger itinerary preferences, fleet development and aircraft–route assignment. Models for passenger demand as well as aircraft trajectories, emissions and climate impact complement the simulation framework. The results show that introducing a NMRA to the ATS improves the quality of travel for passengers and the alignment of payload–range capabilities and aircraft–route assignment for the overall aircraft fleet. As a consequence, the NMRA reduces the fuel consumption, emissions and climate impact of the ATS in our future scenarios by up to 1.4% (pessimistic) and 2.1% (optimistic). We conclude that a higher fleet diversification and a better alignment of payload–range capabilities and aircraft–route assignment through introducing a NMRA can marginally improve the fuel efficiency and climate impact of the ATS.