Abstract
The transition process towards renewable energy systems is facing challenges in both fluctuating electricity generation of photovoltaic and wind power as well as socio-economic disruptions. With regard to sector integration, solutions need to be developed, especially for the mobility and the industry sector, because their ad hoc electrification and decarbonization seem to be unfeasible. Power-to-fuel (P2F) technologies may contribute to bridge the gap, as renewable energy can be transferred into hydrogen and hydrocarbon-based synthetic fuels. However, the renewable fuels production is far from economically competitive with conventional fuels. With a newly developed agent-based model, potential developments in the German energy markets were simulated for a horizon of 20 years from 2016 to 2035. The model was constructed through a participatory modeling process with relevant actors and stakeholders in the field. Model findings suggest that adjusted regulatory framework conditions (e.g., exemptions from electricity surtaxes, accurate prices for CO2-certificates, strong start-up subsidies, and drastic emission reduction quotas) are key factors for economically feasible P2F installations and will contribute to its large-scale integration into the German energy system. While plant capacities do not exceed 0.042 GW in a business-as-usual scenarios, the above-mentioned adjustments lead to plant capacities of at least 3.25 GW in 2035 with concurrent reduction in product prices.
Highlights
The German Energiewende has been focused on the electricity sector, and 42.1% of electricity came from renewable sources by the end of 2019 [1]
We present the simulation results and discuss them in light of the theoretical framework presented in Sections 2 and 3
The largest deviation appears in the capacity of liquid fuel production, which was 150 kW in reality in 2016 and 1 MW in the model
Summary
The German Energiewende has been focused on the electricity sector, and 42.1% of electricity came from renewable sources by the end of 2019 [1]. Common assumptions assume that renewable electricity will be the only energy source that might match the overall energy demand sustainably in Germany [2,3,4]. Biofuels, which currently supply 5% of the mobility sector’s fuel consumption, have a limited sustainability potential due to land use conflicts [5,6,7,8]. Of renewable energy (RE) supply in all sectors and to meet the climate protection goals of the Paris. The amount of curtailed excess electricity from wind and solar power has already increased. In 2017, 610 million euros had to be compensated by end consumers, most of which are private households, due to legally guaranteed feed-in tariffs [11]
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have