From Multiple Breakdowns to Stabilization of Democracy: Argentina

Abstract

As we saw in Chapter 4, the breakdown rate of competitive regimes declined dramatically in Latin America in the third wave of democratization. Why did competitive regimes break down so readily before the third wave? And what accounts for the vastly lower breakdown rate in the third wave? In this chapter we rely on a qualitative case study to explore these questions and provide intensive testing of our theory. The intensive testing focuses on Argentina, which experienced chronic instability during the first and the second waves of democratization but has enjoyed a stable democratic regime since 1983, notwithstanding considerable governmental instability from December 2001 to May 2003 and some signs of democratic erosion since 2011. The two questions we ask about Argentina mirror the theoretical questions that animate this book. What explains the chronic breakdowns of competitive regimes until 1976 despite some favorable conditions? And what explains the dramatic change to democratic survival in the period since 1983 despite some severe social and economic dislocations that almost surely would have produced a breakdown prior to the third wave? From 1930 until 1983, Argentina frequently cycled between authoritarian and competitive regimes. The proximate key to understanding the high instability of the five competitive regimes that broke down is that the pro-democracy coalition was chronically weak because of the almost complete absence of actors with a normative preference for democracy. When actors became disappointed with the results of competitive regimes, they defected to the authoritarian coalition for short-term gain. All major actors were indifferent or hostile to democracy. Radical actors had major responsibility for the breakdowns of 1951 and 1976 and secondary responsibility for the other three breakdowns. An unfriendly regional environment contributed to the breakdowns of 1930, 1951, 1966, and 1976. The authoritarian coalitions were also consistently fragile.