From "multi-vector" through the technology of "controlled chaos" to a probabilistic model of the transformation of Kazakhstan: socio-psychological analysis

Abstract

Introduction and purpose setting. The article is devoted to the disclosure of the psychological essence and content of the special operation related to the coup attempt in January 2022. The analysis of the practice of the special operation was studied in order to analyze the psychological aspects of the selected discourse, taking into account the Kazakh mentality, that actualizes the problem and reveals the novelty.Methodology and methods of the study. The special operation fits into the new "Big Game" of actors in Central Asia and, as a psychological concept, reveals for the Republic of Kazakhstan the scenario of a hybrid technology of violent transition through "controlled chaos" to a probabilistic development model. The narrative as a methodological tool for hyperbolizing the meaning of access to the technology of destructive communications, preparation and attempted coup d’etat reveals the psychology of discourse. The conceptualized and carrying narrative of the so-called "loyal" psychological impact, taking into account the specifics of the Kazakh mentality of the introduction of controlled chaos and the subsequent dismemberment of the Republic of Kazakhstan through a special operation, sets the ways of its understanding and representation as a new type of technology. The synthesis of its fragments on the basis of psychological analysis reveals the peculiarities of the psychology of the struggle for power.Results. The specificity of the Kazakh mentality within the framework of conflict-destructive manifestations is revealed and the probable actors of the complex complicity of the coup attempt are identified on the basis of semantic behavior. The phenomenon of «special operation» is briefly investigated, with clarification of the term and concepts of the technology of systemic destabilization of the Republic of Kazakhstan: controlled chaos, networkization, operations to achieve effect, geopolitical game, preemptive confrontation. The author reveals the forms, stages and fragments of a number of actors carried out by the special services in an attempt to withdraw the Republic of Kazakhstan from the sphere of influence of Russia. An analysis of their activities reveals a picture of internal contradictions and the goals of the special operation.Conclusion. The results of the study contribute to the theory and practice of disrupting coups, and the material will be used in a course of lectures on this topic.