From Malthusian Frontier to Demographic Steady State: The Concordian Birth Rate, 1635-1993

Abstract

This study traces changes in birth rate from 1635 to 1993 in rural Concord Massachusetts. The first fertility transition occurred by 1815. The transition paralleled an economic transition from a marketplace economy before American Revolution to a market economy in 1783. Fertility decline prior to 1815 occurred through individual fertility control and other social fertility-limiting controls. The population was premodern agricultural and relatively low income. After 1815 demographic patterns were responsive to macroeconomic and macropolitical processes: a stable long-term birth rate of about 17/1000 but with marked cyclical movements. During settlement phase of 17th century population growth in New England remained fairly stable at about 2.4%. During 18th century until 1815 population pressure on land economic change and move to individualism rather than Puritan utopian communalism were accompanied by a decline in expectation of life at birth an increase in marriage age and migration a in towns and nuclear village fragmentation. Evidence is presented to support pattern of economic decline acting as a push factor to migration and reduced birth rates in towns. After 1815 Concord shifted to a more robust economy and baby boom-baby bust cycle moved in lockstep with 20-25 year Kuznets growth cycles. Three series of annual birth rates were constructed for each year between 1635 and 1993. Birth rate decline was evident during economic depression of 1640s which was precipitated by Puritan Revolution and a halt to immigration between England and New World. Recovery occurred during 1650-55 and then dipped again until financial crisis of 1690s. This rhythm of bust and boom associated with economic stagnation and economic growth occurred until 1970. After 1970 birth rate dropped as baby boomers of 1940s felt effects of competition in job market. Births increased during 1980 Reagan-era economic growth. Possibly this foreshadows the resumption of Kuznet-cycle oscillations around this new and lower level.