From Likelihood of Success to Likely Consequences

Abstract

The trouble with Likelihood of Success is that it appears to be little more than a rehash of what seems obvious: do not go to war if you do not have much of a chance to win. Is this a distinctive or helpful contribution to contemporary just war thinking? I argue in this essay that while it might be better to simply jettison the term, some considerations of success are not just prudential in that narrow sense of the term. How we think of “success” and the likelihood of achieving it matters significantly to how we think about other elements of jus ad bellum. Success is not just about winning. It is about winning in the right way for the right end. Still, I suggest that it is not clear what “Likelihood of Success” does for those in political authority already inclined to think about war in any sort of rational and even moral way. I suggest we consider discarding Likelihood of Success and instead consider what I am calling “Likely Consequences.”