From Isolation to Radicalization: Anti-Muslim Hostility and Support for ISIS in the West

Abstract

What explains online radicalization and support for ISIS in Europe? In the past few years, thousands in the West have become radicalized by consuming extremist content online, and many have left for Syria to join the Islamic State. This study examines whether anti-Muslim hostility in Europe might drive pro-ISIS radicalization. From December 2015 to May 2016, I collected real-time and historical data on the activity of thousands of ISIS activists and the full social network of their followers on Twitter, a central platform for the organization’s recruitment efforts. I captured and analyzed the online activity and textual content produced by ISIS supporters before their accounts were deleted from the Internet. Using data on the geographic location of Twitter users, I matched online radicalization indicators with offline data on vote share for far-right, anti-Muslim political parties to test whether the intensity of anti-Muslim hostility at the local (neighborhood/municipality) level predicts support for ISIS on Twitter. Results show that local-level support for far-right parties is a significant and substantively meaningful predictor of online radicalization, including posting tweets sympathizing with ISIS, describing life in ISIS-controlled territories, discussing foreign fighters, and expressing anti-West sentiment. An analysis of high-frequency data surrounding events that stir anti-Muslim hostility, such as terrorist attacks and anti-Muslim protests in Europe, shows the same pattern.