From initial risk assessments to system risk management

Abstract

Purpose – The aim of this research is to provide an approach for modeling system risk management and to develop an analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-based model for simulating decisions on introducing innovations in air transport systems. Design/methodology/approach – The paper proposes AHP and analytic network process (ANP) methodologies for overcoming fragmentation in risk assessments perceived by risk, budget, quality or schedule managements, and for resolving potential conflicts between safety, efficiency and well-being. Findings – Issues in system risk evaluation and management were identified and transferred to a list of requirements. A generic ANP-based model for system risk management was developed as well as a template for capture of knowledge on risks, including expert knowledge, and for implementation of a new decision-making process as applied to introducing innovation(s). Research limitations/implications – Since this research addresses evaluation and management of non-event based risks due to innovations in air transport systems, further analysis and re-evaluation of risks is required during and after the implementation in order to provide continuously dynamic representation of system risk. Practical implications – The results of this study contribute to the development and implementation of a usable version of multi-criteria decision analysis at senior management level. Further, it stimulates mechanism for learning and trade-offs between various stakeholders. Originality/value – This work is original in that it is cross-disciplinary (e.g. risk management, management of innovation, systems design). It addresses the issue of integrating a safety management system with an overall business management system. Also, it introduces qualitative non-event risk assessments into system risk management. In addition to the use of the AHP-model for system risk management, an implementation model (“risk stakeholder model”) is also developed.