From Ice to Penguins: The Role of Mathematics in Antarctic Research

Abstract

Mathematics underpins all modern Antarctic science as illustrated by numerous activities carried out during the international year “Mathematics for Planet Earth”. Here, we provide examples of some ongoing applications of mathematics in a wide range of Antarctic science disciplines: (1) Feeding and foraging of marine predators; (2) Fisheries management and ecosystem modelling; and (3) Climate change research. Mathematics has allowed the development of diverse models of physical and ecological processes in the Antarctic. It has provided insights into the past dynamics of these systems and allows projections of potential future conditions, which are essential for understanding and managing the effects of fishing and climate change. Highly specific methods and models have been developed to address particular questions in each discipline, from the detailed analyses of remote-sensed predator tracking data to the assessment of the outputs from multiple global climate models. A key issue, that is common to all disciplines, is how to deal with the inherent uncertainty that arises from limited data availability and the assumptions or simplifications that are necessary in the analysis and modeling of interacting processes. With the continued rapid development of satellite-based and remote observation systems (e.g. ocean drifters and automatic weather stations), and of new methods for genetic analyses of biological systems, a step-change is occurring in the magnitude of data available on all components of Antarctic systems. These changes in data availability have already led to the development of new methods and algorithms for their efficient collection, validation, storage and analysis. Further progress will require the development of a wide range of new and innovative mathematical approaches, continuing the trend of world science becoming increasingly international and interdisciplinary.