From hubris to humility: Transcending original sin in managing hydroclimatic risk

Abstract

Abstract The characteristics of hydroclimatic risk in the 21st Century are rapidly changing. Increases in extreme weather events and population densities alter exposure to floods and droughts. Water infrastructure is unable to keep pace and deterministic models can mislead. Yet, predominant strategies for managing risk continue to follow historical precedent, striving to tame nature's outbursts and mitigate disasters through conventional engineering structures. In this Viewpoint article, scholars from three disciplines address underlying limitations in contemporary risk management, each of which is rooted in the concept of hubris. They argue that effective risk management must extend beyond hubris-thinking to an approach based on humility. Extending from the three types of limitations—described as Disconnect from Nature, Engineers of a Fixed Nature. and Modelers of Nature— a collective and synthetic consideration provides insights into potential pathways forward for both science and practice. More satisfactory strategies for managing hydroclimatic risk will require a shift from a hubris-based paradigm to a more humility-based approach.