From guardians to democrats? Attempts to explain change and continuity in the civil–military relations of post-authoritarian Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines

Abstract

This article explores the role the military has played in the democratization processes of three ‘young democracies’ (Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines) in Southeast Asia. The issue of democratization vis-à-vis the armed forces is even more relevant for Southeast Asia as a region with historically powerful militaries and long traditions of political interventions and rampant human rights abuses. While Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines have historically struggled with deep entrenchments of the military – not only in the political arena, but also within the bureaucracy and the economy – their respective militaries played very different roles within democratization processes. The Indonesian military remained politically neutral after the fall of Suharto, the Philippines witnessed various failed coup attempts by mid-ranking officers, while the Thai military played a key role in the termination of democracy through a coup in 2006. The dominant literature on democratization tries to explain the different outcomes of democratization processes to democracy mainly by focusing on elite choices, new norms and values, shifts in conjunctural situations, the unraveling of the institutional structures of authoritarian regimes and the formation of new, democratic institutional structures. Likewise research on civil–military relations in new democracies has pointed to behavioral change, successful structural reforms (downsizing of the military, capacity-building, withdrawing the military from politics) and civilian leadership in defense and security matters as decisive factors for establishing civilian supremacy. Yet none of these factors fully explains why Indonesia's armed forces remained politically neutral after the fall of Suharto, while Thailand's generals launched a coup in 2006. To answer this question more general political dynamics of democratization processes need to be examined, especially with regard to the formation of new alliances of differing social forces and their impact on traditional power structures, in order to understand continuity and/or change in the military's attitudes towards democracy.