From Frozen Ties to Strategic Engagement: U.S.-Iranian Relationship in 2030

Abstract

Abstract : Locked in a confrontational stance lasting more than 3 decades, the United States and Iran have failed repeatedly to transform their hostile relationship. The ongoing nuclear talks, however, offer better prospects of not only addressing Iran s nuclear program challenges, but also developing a mutually beneficial strategic relationship between the United States and Iran in the long term. Why are these prospects better today? According to Mr. Roman Muzalevsky, the coming to power of new presidential administrations in both countries, the additional sanctions under the Barack Obama administration, game-changing regional trends, as well as U.S.-Iranian economic and security cooperation imperatives, have all facilitated an interim nuclear deal, prompting talks of a promising start in U.S.-Iranian ties that, if cultivated, could turn into a strategic d tente by 2030. In this analytically rigorous monograph, Mr. Muzalevsky, an author of numerous works on security and geopolitics, explains these and other geo-economic and geopolitical forces that have been driving a U.S.- Iranian d tente and presents a vision of three possible U.S.-Iranian strategic relationships that could emerge in the next decade and a half. He then provides an assessment of each possible outcome in terms of its likelihood and plausibility against domestic and international factors that either facilitate or inhibit related developments and outcomes, offering short- and longterm recommendations for the United States, Iran, and their partners to prepare for a strategic change that a U.S.-Iranian rapprochement would entail. The author envisions a strategic engagement involving a nuclear weapons-capable Iran; a comprehensive cooperation following a Grand Bargain ; and an incremental strategic engagement after a nuclear deal as three possibilities, with the latter type combining elements of the other two without producing extreme outcomes.