Abstract
Family formation has been substantially delayed in recent decades, and birth rates have fallen below the replacement rates in many OECD countries. Research suggests that these trends are tightly linked to recent changes in the labor market; however, little is known about the role played by increases in job insecurity. In this paper, I investigate whether the type of employment, stable or temporary, affects the timing of cohabitation and fertility. Using French data on the work and family history of large samples of young adults, I provide evidence that being permanently employed has a much stronger effect than being in temporary employment on the probability of entering a first cohabiting relationship as well as on the probability of having a first child. These findings suggest that increases in age at first cohabitation and at first child can partly be explained by the rise in unemployment and in the share of temporary jobs among young workers.
Highlights
Over the last half century family formation and family structures have changed substantially: median age at first marriage or cohabitation has increased; more and more individuals are living alone; first births are postponed; and birth rates have fallen below the replacement rate in many OECD countries
While several papers have provided evidence that these sweeping changes have technological, social and legal roots with the introduction of the birth control pill or changes in abortion laws for example, there is evidence that these changes in family structures and family formation are tightly linked to changes in the labor market
This paper aims at filling this gap by studying to what extent the rise in the share of temporary jobs among young workers explains observed delays in family formation
Summary
Over the last half century family formation and family structures have changed substantially: median age at first marriage or cohabitation has increased; more and more individuals are living alone; first births are postponed; and birth rates have fallen below the replacement rate in many OECD countries. While several papers have provided evidence that these sweeping changes have technological, social and legal roots with the introduction of the birth control pill or changes in abortion laws for example (e.g., see Goldin and Katz, 2002 or Myers, 2017), there is evidence that these changes in family structures and family formation are tightly linked to changes in the labor market. For a given wage permanent contracts reduce earnings uncertainty compared with temporary contracts This may impact individuals’ probability of cohabitation and childbearing positively or negatively. Temporary workers with low wages may be a more desirable match compared with permanent workers with low wages because the future earnings of temporary workers are more likely to increase. In this context, stronger employment protection would either have a positive or negative impact on family formation depending
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