Abstract
ABSTRACT Managers involved in the refining and trading of oil had conflicting views on the relationship between output and cash generation in their market. A day-by-day account is given of a project in which the market was modelled. The models ostensibly represented the view of the Refining Strategy staff but consultation with other individuals allowed the views of the local Trading Department to be represented too. The tools of system dynamics were used to articulate assumptions and to support a ‘dialogue’ in which disagreements regarding macro—behaviour were transformed into debates over specific parameters and relationships. The repeated re—crafting of a STELLA model led to alterations in the understanding that the refining managers had of the key variables and of their dynamic interaction. Some general reflections on the benefits of group modelling using system dynamics close the paper.
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