From deprivation to violence? Examining the violent escalation of conflict in the Republic of Macedonia

Abstract

This article looks into the process of conflict escalation in an attempt to provide a better understanding of the conditions that determine the shift from protest mobilization to organized armed violence. Acknowledging the defining impact of relative deprivation, the study argues that the existence of an interactive nexus between the intensity of state repression and group mobilization can possibly explain the critical shift from protest mobilization to organized violence in conjunction to the critical influence of opportunities. The study explores the intrastate conflict in the Republic of Macedonia and develops a methodological design that examines the levels of state repression with conflict intensity, adopting a time-frames analysis supported by human rights reports and interview material drawn from a series of research field trips in the region. Findings reveal a periodic association between repression and mobilization (1995, 1997, and 2001). The study provides evidence of the essentially grievance-based nature of group mobilization, and finds a reasonably interactive (two-ways) and analogous, but not always consistent, relationship between repression and conflict intensity, without establishing relations of fixed causality.