From Data to Scenarios: On the “Imaginative Coefficient” of Futurology

Abstract

This article reconstructs the historical circumstances that led to the emergence of futurology, as a distinct field of research, and of Herman Kahn’s scenario analysis, as an investigative tool alternative to trend analysis. Two main paradigms characterized prospective thinking up to the mid-20th century, a historico-literary one that emphasized the importance of imagination and artistic talent, and a technical-scientific one that favored the rigorous analysis of data and precision of forecasts. After the Second World War, these two paradigms found a virtuous synthesis in scenario analysis, a halfway approach between literary arts and science. The author argues that the use of imagination and creativity does not undermine the scientific status of futurology, just as it does not put in jeopardy that of other sciences. He also introduces the term imaginative coefficient to indicate a fundamental ingredient of prospective thinking and provides the theoretical basis of this concept.