From “Creeping Independence” to Reluctant Realism? China-Taiwan Relations under the DPP

Abstract

The rise to power of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan was a landmark event in the history of cross-Strait relations. As the old but familiar competition between the Chinese Communist Party(CCP) and the Kuomintang (KMT) has shifted to a new but uncertain one between the CCP and the DPP, Beijing may well find that their divergent political stance, together with the apparent lack of previous contacts and mutual understanding, could make it harder to find a common ground between the two. At issue is a long list of major disputes that the DPP has inherited, such as the “one China” issue, the “one country, two systems” unification formula, and a possible use of force. Unlike former President Lee Teng-hui who in the eyes of Beijing has pursued “creeping independence, the Chen presidency—notwithstanding his party's political platform for Taiwan's independence—has reluctant realism as his modus operandi in the face of domestic political realities and China's reactions. This article throws some light on the changing contexts, major trends, and recent developments in PRC-Taiwan relations with an emphasis on what the DPP rule could bring to bear on the relationship. Section one offers a synopsis of the PRC-Taiwan ties in the 1990s, that is between the CCP and the KMT. Section two illuminates the DPP's positions on some salient issues in the cross-Strait relationship, while section three addresses major factors that affect the current and likely future courses of action on both sides. Finally, the concluding section analyzes the prospects and parameters of change in the cross-Strait relationship, with an eye on their policy implications.