From consumer to prosumer: A model-based analysis of costs and benefits of grid-connected residential PV-battery systems

Abstract

The development of the European PV market has shown the strong potential for using grid-connected solar PV systems operated simultaneously with battery storage. Since 2018, an important policy measure for the enhanced deployment of small-scale photovoltaic installations in Poland has been the grant support program “My electricity”. Starting from April 2022, the program provides financial support to projects that include energy storage systems. In this context, this study contributes to the literature on the acceptance and uptake of PV-battery systems in Poland by evaluating the effect of tariff incentives on the optimal operation of grid-connected residential PV-battery systems. The developed framework addresses the uncertainty of PV power generation and demand using predictive models based on LSTM neural networks. An optimization component is developed to capture the effect of battery degradation and ensure the effective utilization of the PV-battery system. The results indicate that installing a PV system in a residential home reduces the energy bill by 40%, from € 475.53 to € 287.18. Moreover, the quantitative analysis indicates that the potential adoption of a feed-in tariff that mimics the current prosumer policy in Germany and the coupling of battery systems would cause fundamental changes in the grid utilization of Polish households.