From club convergence of per capita industrial pollutant emissions to industrial transfer effects: An empirical study across 285 cities in China

Abstract

The process of industrialization has led to an increase in air pollutant emissions in China. At the regional level, industrial restructuring and industrial transfer from eastern China to western China have caused a significant difference in pollutant emissions among various cities. This paper analyzes per capita industrial pollutant emissions across 285 prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2015, aiming to reveal how industrial transfer affects the formation of convergence clubs. Whether industrial pollutant emissions across heterogeneous cities converge to a unique steady-state equilibrium is first identified based on the concept of club convergence. Logit regression analysis is then applied to assess the effects of industrial transfer on the observed clubs. The log t-test highlights four convergence clubs for industrial SO2 emissions and three clubs for industrial soot emissions. The regression analysis results reveal that the effects of industrial transfer can lead to multiple steady-state equilibria, suggesting region-specific environmental policies and execution strategies. In addition, accelerating the development of clean energy technologies in emission-intense regions should be further emphasized.