From appeasement to soft balancing: the duterte administration’s shifting policy on the South China Sea imbroglio

Abstract

ARTICLE This article examines the shift in Philippine policy on China under the Duterte Administration from appeasement to soft balancing. After his election in mid-2016, President Rodrigo Duterte adopted an appeasement policy vis-à-vis China’s expansive territorial claim in the South China Sea. However, China has not fulfilled its end of the bargain. It failed to inject public investment into the Philippines’ massive infrastructure-building program, and to moderate the behavior of its military units operating in the South China Sea. This has prompted the Duterte Administration to adopt a policy of soft balancing. It pursues this policy by (a) hedging on its alliance with the U.S.; (b) fostering a security partnership with Japan; and (c) pushing for the immediate passage of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-China Code of Conduct (CoC) of the Parties in the South China Sea. In conclusion, this paper argues that the Duterte Administration’s current objective is to restrain Chinese aggressive behavior in the South China Sea by maintaining its alliance with the U.S., fostering a security partnership with Japan, and playing a more active role in the ASEAN.