From abnormal to normal

Abstract

AbstractWe look at the growth experience of 25 transition countries over the 25 years since the dissolution of the USSR. The initial collapse in income was much more severe in 12 former Soviet Union countries (FSU12) than in the 10 transition countries that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007 (EU10). In 2015, FSU12 income levels were further behind EU10 than they were at the start of transition, despite more rapid growth in the last 15 years. Compared to predictions from a parsimonious growth model, the region as a whole is ‘normal’ in terms of growth performance since the 2000s. However, the FSU12 over‐perform and the EU10 under‐perform relative to model predictions for the last 15 years.