Abstract
AbstractWe aim to clarify the usefulness of different measures of economic resilience in the context of global shocks. In relation to the Great Recession, Oil& European migrant crises, and COVID-19, we compute and validate from a statistical point of view, then characterize five metrics on 317 NUTS2 regions and 21 years. ROC curves and Cox regression compare them by the capacity to predict the post-shock state. Heterogenous behavior characterizes resistance, recovery, and loss. Furthermore, the non-linear resistance performs best in future state prediction, while the composite index has the lowest efficiency as a predictor of the regions’ recovery.
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