Abstract
We use five years of data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) to develop a correlation between the frequency of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC) and the zonal mean tropical surface temperature. AIRS data show that the frequency of DCC in the tropical oceans is very temperature sensitive, increasing 45% per 1 K increase of the zonal mean surface temperature. The combination of the sensitivity of the DCC frequency to temperature indicates that the frequency of DCC, and as a consequence the frequency of severe storms, increases at the rate of 6%/decade with the current +0.13 K/decade rate of global warming. This result is only qualitatively consistent with state‐of‐the‐art climate models, where the frequency of the most intense rain events increases with global warming.
Highlights
[1] We use five years of data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) to develop a correlation between the frequency of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC) and the zonal mean tropical surface temperature
We address a similar question with the analysis of the frequency of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC), which correspond to large cumulus towers associated with severe storms
[3] We use the first five years of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) [Chahine et al, 2006] data to analyze the frequency of DCC in the tropical oceans for temperature sensitivity and trend
Summary
[2] The expectation that the hydrologic cycle will accelerate with global warming is largely based on the Clausius Clapeyron (CC) equation. With the observed multi-decadal global warming at the rate of 0.13 K/decade [Trenberth et al, 2007] and a 7%/K increase of water vapor following the CC relation, the expected increase in water vapor is 7%/K * 0.13 K/decade = 1%/decade This expected rate is qualitatively consistent with recent re-analysis of SSMI data [Wentz et al, 2007], which found that precipitation over the oceans has increased by 1.5%/decade during the past 19 years. The combination of higher temperatures and higher water vapor may produce larger and more measured increases in the frequency of high clouds This reasoning was one motivation for the analysis of 22 years of data from a long sequence of HIRS instruments in the NOAA/ATOVS weather satellites between 1978 and 2003. The established long term trend in TSurf due to global warming can be used to estimate the change of frequency of DCC with time
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