Frequency analysis of rainfall events in Karbala city, Iraq, by creating a proposed formula with eight probability distribution theories

Abstract

ABSTRACT Due to its impact on the derivation of hydrological models and the safe design of sewer and storm networks, the anticipation of rainfall events should be intensively studied. In this regard, studying the rainfall events in Karbala, Iraq, has specific importance after the rapid increase in population in this city and the impact of climate change beyond 2003. Herein, the maximum daily rainfall depth of Karbala city has been analyzed to investigate and extract its probability of future occurrence using frequency analysis. Eight theoretical probability distributions, which are Weibull, Gamma, Gumbel, Log normal, Generalized Extreme Value, Normal, Exponential, and Log-Pearson Type III, were fitted using Hyfran Plus software to simulate the characteristics of the observed probability of rainfall depth. Based on the results of four statistical indicators, the exponential distribution revealed the best performance as compared with other distributions. Accordingly, ‎the synthetic storms of 24 hr were derived‎ for cumulative and incremental distribution of rainfall depth using the Soil Conservation Service method type ΙΙ for the arid and semiarid region to recurrence periods ‎‎(T = 2, 5, 10, 15, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500), also the rainfall intensity duration frequency curves were developed. As an essential finding, new validated empirical formula has been proposed to optimize the coefficients of the location of Karbala city which may fill the gap for predicting the rainfall intensity and improving storm management strategies in Iraq.